Cyclone Mocha that had formed over the Bay of Bengal has now started crossing the Rakhine State of Myanmar. It is expected to make landfall over the area of Sittwe City in Myanmar, affecting the coastal areas of Rakhine, Chin and Sagaing Region. Local authorities have advised evacuation in Rakhine and the northwest, resulting in over 100,000 individuals seeking shelter.
Cyclone Mocha (pronounced ‘Mokha’) that had formed over the Northeast Bay and adjoining East Central Bay of Bengal, has now started crossing the Rakhine State of Myanmar. The State capital Sittwe and adjacent townships, adjacent states of Myanmar and lower part of Teknaf and St Martin’s island of Bangladesh started to observe the peripheral effects.
According to forecasts, within the next few hours, Mocha is likely to continue to move North-Northeast, afterwards it is likely to continue to move North-Northeast towards Chin State and Magway, Sagaing Regions and Kachin State as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.
The cyclone is expected to make landfall with maximum sustained winds of 110-120mph and the centre of it would cross the Rakhine State in the next few hours with sustained speed. Following the landfall, it is projected to continue its path towards the north-northeast, posing a considerable risk of landslides to Chin and Sagaing in Myanmar. Storm surges across various areas in Rakhine have been predicted to reach heights of up to 3 metres. In Chin State and Sagaing State heavy rainfall induced landslides may be expected as well.
Anticipated Humanitarian Needs
- Cyclone Mocha to impact Myanmar, specifically Rakhine State, Chin State, Sagaing Region, and nearby areas.
- Coastal flooding, surges, and heavy rainfall pose risks to hundreds of thousands of people in these regions.
- Northwest, including Chin State and Sagaing, susceptible to tropical storm-induced rainfall, flooding, and landslides.
- Combined population in Rakhine and the Northwest is around six million, with 1.2 million individuals already displaced.
- It is anticipated that people will be trapped in their homes due to rising water caused by storm surges.
- The cyclone is also expected to disrupt communication through internet and telephone lines.
Myanmar Government’s Response
Emergency response preparations are underway at national and sub-national levels for Cyclone Mocha. In Rakhine State, relief organisations are stocking supplies and preparing for distribution to affected individuals. Additional personnel have been deployed from Yangon to assist with planning and response. Early warning dissemination and safety messages are being shared. Efforts are being made at the national level to engage stakeholders and ensure access to those in need. Preparations are also being made in Bangladesh with coordination between humanitarian communities.
Adequate funding is crucial, as the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan is underfunded. Local authorities have advised evacuation in Rakhine and the Northwest, resulting in over 100,000 individuals seeking shelter. Evacuation centres have been identified in Chin, Magway, and Sagaing.
BRAC’s Programmatic Presence
BRAC Myanmar is currently working in Sagaing Region, Mandalay Region, Shan State, and Kayin State with a team of about 20 staff implementing three projects under the Agriculture, Food Security, and Livelihood programme. In parallel, BRAC Myanmar Microfinance Company Ltd. runs microfinance operations in 52 townships across eight regions and states in the country. Among the possible affected areas, BRAC Myanmar has operations in the Sagaing region, but the closest operational area is 200 kilometres from the possible affected region.
BRAC’s Humanitarian Actions for Myanmar
As of the morning of 14 May 2023, BRAC International Humanitarian Programme (BIHP) has conducted three rounds of coordination meetings with BRAC Myanmar and provided time-bound technical support on communicating the early warning forecasts and in developing a preparation strategy.
- Staff awareness and safety are being prioritised through communication and awareness-raising materials.
- Multiple coordination meetings between BIHP and BRAC Myanmar have taken place, focusing on early warning forecasts and preparation strategies.
A three-pronged strategy was recommended:
i) National-level coordination, cluster meetings, and outreach communications have been planned.
ii)Facilitation be provided to the BRAC staff and local partner communities particularly focusing on community-based cyclone preparedness and household level preparedness actions.
iii)Guidance and facilitation provided to the BRAC staff and local partner communities particularly focusing on the “community-based cyclone preparedness” and “household level preparedness” actions. - Due to the political and restrictive context, BRAC Myanmar will not directly respond in Rakhine State.
- Preparedness messaging and guidance has been provided for areas where BRAC Myanmar has ongoing programmes.
Regular coordination between BIHP and BRAC Myanmar will continue in the next hours and throughout the disaster response and early recovery stages.
